Spatial Distribution of Urbanization and Agricultural Suitability: A Historical Global Analysis

讲座内容： A conventional viewin the narrative economic history literature believes that, the geographical distributionof urbanization was highly dependent on local agricultural land quality inearly periods, while this dependency relationship is much weaker in moderntimes. This study quantitatively assesses this historical trend of man'schanging relation to land. We examine the global urban population in grid cellsof 0.5 degree longitude and latitude resolution, and relates it to anagricultural suitability index by the spatial negative binomial regressionmodel. The model also controls for other physical geographic factors, spatialinterdependence between urban areas, and region fixed effects. The estimationis repeated at different points in time from 1000 to 2000 CE through a multiplecross-sectional regressions setup. The results show that the correlationbetween urban population and agricultural suitability first increased in earlyhistory (before 1500 CE), and then decreased over time. Thefirst-rising-then-falling pattern persists to various robustness checks. Itprovides empirical evidence for the declining importance of fertile lands indetermining locations of urbanization as technologies and societies developedover time.